Egan-Jones CLO* Summary Report (Sept 2022)
*Egan-Jones CLO ratings are Non-NRSRO ratings and are not issued or maintained by EJR in its capacity as a NRSRO.
Weathering the storm – despite the turmoil in the economy, CLO credit quality to date has held steady as can be seen below. Egan-Jones provides an overview of the CLO market to facilitate comparisons over time and among various CLOs. Of note is the improvement of WARS in average to about 3750 from 3800 over the past six months indicating the overall default risk is relatively unchanged.
Currently, Egan-Jones tends to have a more positive view of CLO credit quality as compared to other credit rating agencies, as demonstrated in the table below.
I. Deal Key Metrics Summary
As of August 2022, Egan-Jones rated 966 CLO deals. We collected and calculated available deal level, tranche level and asset level key metrics such as deal weighted average rating factor and tranche subordinations, compared with prior period(s) analysis results and summarized highlights below.
I-A. Weighted Average Rating Score
Egan-Jones collected the weighted average rating score (WARS)² of covered CLO deals. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the WARS value were 3650, 3763, and 3855, respectively.
I-B. Diversity Score
Egan-Jones collected the Diversity Score (DS)³ of covered CLO deals. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the DS value were 60, 65, and 70, respectively. Egan-Jones calculated and compared the monthly average value of DS data from March 2022 to this month. The mean value of DS was stable during the past months.
I-C. Senior Tranches Subordination
Egan-Jones collected the senior tranches subordination⁴ (%) (STS) of covered CLO deals. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the STS value were 31.8, 33.5, and 35.6, respectively. Egan-Jones calculated and compared the monthly average value of STS data from Feb 22 to this month. The mean value of STS has decreased over the observed period, which indicates the average senior tranche subordination might be decreasing.
I-D. CCC+ or Lower Rating Percentage
Egan-Jones collected the CCC+ and Lower Rated Asset Percentage (%) (CLRA) of covered CLO deals. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the CLRA value were 3.1, 4.6, and 5.7, respectively. Egan-Jones calculated and compared the monthly average value of CLRA data from March 2022 to this month. The mean value of CLRA has decreased over the observed period, which indicates the percentage of lower rated assets might be decreasing.
I-E. Liability to Asset Balance
Note: Deal balance is the sum of current balance of all deal tranches; Debt balance is the sum of current balance of all debt tranches.
Egan-Jones reviewed various liability / asset metrics. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the total deal balance to collateral balance (total current tranches balance / current collateral balance) were 96.0%, 97.0%, and 99.0%, respectively. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the debt balance to collateral balance (current non-equity tranches balance / current collateral balance) were 106.0%, 108.0%, and 110.0%, respectively.
II. Tranche Key Metrics Summary
II-A. Tranche Subordination Analysis
The average subordination levels (defaulted assets at market value) of senior tranches and mezzanine tranches tranches were 34.4% and 12.3%, respectively. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of senior tranche subordination levels (defaulted assets at market value) were 31.7%, 33.6%, and 35.7%, respectively. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of mezzanine tranche subordination levels (defaulted assets at market value) were 4.8%, 11.8%, and 18.9%, respectively.
The mean, 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the available subordination of each rating category (includes +/-) can be found in table above.
II-B. Tranche Coupon Analysis
The average coupon of senior tranches and mezzanine tranches are 3.6% and 5.8%, respectively. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of senior tranche coupon are 3.6%, 3.8%, and 3.9%, respectively. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of mezzanine tranche coupon are 4.4%, 5.1%, and 7.0%, respectively.
The mean, 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the available coupon of each rating category (includes +/-) can be found in the table above.
II-C. Tranche Spread Analysis
The average spread (over 3 months LIBOR) of senior tranches and mezzanine tranches are 1.1% and 3.4%, respectively. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of senior tranche spread (over 3 months LIBOR) are 1.0%, 1.1%, and 1.2%, respectively. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of mezzanine tranche spread (over 3 months LIBOR) are 1.8%, 2.6%, and 5.4%, respectively.
The mean, 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the available spread (over 3 months LIBOR) of each rating category (includes +/-) can be found in the table above.
II-D. Egan-Jones Ratings vs Other Agencies
Below is a summary of Egan-Jones ratings compared with other agencies. For the detailed full listing and sorting of Egan-Jones’s CLO ratings, please visit our website at https://portal.egan-jones.com/client/fast/clo.aspx.
Egan-Jones's Key Rating Features & Differences Compared With Others
Below is a summary of Egan-Jones's approach (see our Methodology for a more complete description):
1. Our rating is derived from estimated losses.
2. The probabilities of default utilized are generally more conservative than industry standards.
3. Generally, our ratings are more heavily model driven and take into account fewer subjective assumptions.
4. Generally, we updates the cashflow and ratings monthly based on the availability of the trustee reports.
5. Our analysis is conducted using information and cash flow engines supplied by a recognized industry provider.
III. Pool Asset Key Metrics Summary
This section summarize the characteristics of the underlying loans in the CLO deals.
III-A. Asset Distribution
III-B. Asset Coupon Analysis
III-C. Asset Rating Analysis
III-D. Asset Default Analysis
Notes
1. Adj asset yield means gross asset yield minus the asset estimated losses which is assumed 50% of loss given default.
2. Weighted Average Rating Score is derived from 10-year default rate and used to calculate the weighted average default probability of the portfolio.
3. Diversity Score represents the number of independent, identical assets that we can use to mimic the default distribution of the actual portfolio.
4. Tranches Subordination stands for the percentage of capital subordinated to the current tranche.
For more details, please refer to Egan-Jones's CLO methodology.
Appendix
Disclaimer
The information in this report is based on current publicly available information that Egan-Jones considers reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. Any credit ratings issued by Egan-Jones represent Egan-Jones’ current opinion of the credit risk of the instrument or entity rated. Any such credit ratings do not address other factors or risks such as market volatility, market risk or liquidity risk. Prospective clients should refer to Egan-Jones’ published statements as to the meaning of different credit ratings assigned by Egan-Jones. Credit ratings provided by Egan-Jones are solely intended to be used by institutional investors. Egan-Jones does not assess or address the suitability of any investment for any client or any other person or the marketability of any security or instrument. Any credit rating issued by Egan-Jones is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or instrument or undertake any investment strategy and Egan-Jones does not act as a fiduciary for any person. Egan-Jones may raise, lower, suspend, withdraw, or otherwise modify a credit rating at any time in its sole discretion. EGAN-JONES IS NOT LICENSED AS A NATIONALLY- RECOGNIZED STATISTICAL RATING ORGANIZATION (“NRSRO”) IN RESPECT OF “ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES”, “GOVERNMENT SECURITIES”, “MUNICIPAL SECURITIES” OR SECURITIES ISSED BY A FOREIGN GOVERNMENT (ALL AS DEFINED IN THE FEDERAL SECURITIES LAWS AND, COLLECTIVELY, THE “EXCLUDED SECURITIES CATEGORIES”) AND ANY RATING ISSUED BY EGAN-JONES IN RESPECT OF ANY SECURITIES FALLING WITHIN AN EXCLUDED SECURITIES CATEGORY IS NOT ISSUED BY EGAN-JONES IN ITS CAPACITY AS AN NRSRO. Egan-Jones is not responsible for the content or operation of third party websites accessed through hypertext or other computer links, cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided on an external website and shall have no liability to any person or entity for the use of, or the accuracy, legality, or content of, such third-party websites. The views attributed to any third party, including any article accessed via computer links, do not necessarily reflect those of, and are not an official view or endorsement of, Egan-Jones. This publication may not be reproduced, retransmitted, or distributed in any form without the prior written consent of Egan-Jones. © 2022, Egan-Jones Ratings Company. All rights reserved.
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