The Last Hurrah (Apr. 23, 2024)
Overview
On the ratings side of our firm we have a saying which is to check your politics, religion, and sporting views at the door (a policy reminiscent of those in the Western saloons of yore of checking one’s firearms at the door). Nonetheless, since politics can have a critical impact on portfolio holdings, this issue addresses some of the dynamics likely at play in the upcoming presidential elections. (Given the advanced age of the leading candidates and the two term limit, we are labeling this installment “The Last Hurrah” in honor of author Edwin O’Connor.)
More than Two
Now that Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have secured their parties’ respective nominations, we are off to the races. For starters, our suspicion is that the race will not be limited to the two opponents as Robert Kennedy has the name recognition and message that is likely to appeal to a range of voters. Furthermore, he is willing to engage in some of the more sensitive issues that are on the minds of voters. Hence, we would not be surprised if he were to garner a substantial portion of the vote which we translate into 10 to 15 % if he gets on state ballots. (An issue which might resonate with voters is the unwillingness of Mr. Biden to engage in the normal primary process and the absence of the normal debates.)
Regarding which candidate Mr. Kennedy is likely to pull votes from, one might initially conclude Mr. Biden is more vulnerable given Mr. Kennedy’s traditional Democratic appeal. Certainly, some early polls seem to indicate that Mr. Kennedy draws slightly more from would-be Biden voters.¹
Mr. Kennedy’s choice of Nicole Shanahan, ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, as his running mate both is likely to further his appeal to Democratic voters and secure more campaign funding. Although Mrs. Shanahan has been a prolific contributor to Democrat causes, her skepticism of vaccines, which is shared by Mr. Kennedy, is likely to be a subject of criticism by supporters of Mr. Biden.² ³
Had Mr. Kennedy chosen football star Aaron Rodgers as his vice-presidential pick, it could have further increased his ticket’s appeal to moderate and conservative voters.⁴
Pending Suits/Criminal Trials
Mr. Trump has been dogged by a myriad of suits since announcing his candidacy. While such actions have increased his appeal among his base, the key question is the likely reaction of the independents, who Mr. Trump needs for a win. Given the delay of most suits/trials, it appears that Mr. Trump will may avoid a felony conviction (which would have swayed at least some voters) but is stuck with the massive cost of appealing the NY suits. If Mr. Trump secures support from Mr. Kennedy in attacking the legitimacy of the suits/charges, he might secure votes from the independents.
Physical and Mental Condition
Given the advanced age of both leading candidates, it is reasonable to question their fitness for service. On this score, Mr. Biden has more of a challenge given the comments of Robert Hur, who decided not to charge Mr. Biden in part because of his weak memory. Our suspicion is that Mr. Trump will focus on this weakness over the next couple of quarters. Additionally, if there is a debate with the two (or three) of them, Mr. Trump is likely to attempt to focus on the issue.
Media and Ground Support
The reality is that like most Democrats, Mr. Biden has the support of most of the traditional the media, which was decisive in the last election. Any pratfalls of Mr. Biden are likely to be ignored or explained away thereby making it difficult to attack Mr. Biden on most issues. The clamor among the Democratic pundits for Mr. Biden to step down have for the most part ceased after the State of the Union speech. One factor which is different in this election than prior ones is that X (previously Twitter) is now in friendlier hands from Mr. Trump’s perspective and might partially counter the typical narrative.
Regarding ground support, as demonstrated in the last election, Mr. Biden traditionally has had this area nailed.
Odds and Ends
Abortion - Prior to the last several elections, the Republicans faired far worse than expected in part because voters rejected the Supreme Court’s ruling regarding a constitutional right to abortion. Our suspicion is that this issue, while not as determinative as it was in prior elections, will still play a roll.
The Hunter Issue - It appears that the party which proceeds with impeachment efforts typically loses voter support, regardless of the supposed validity of the action. The issue is how far the House Republicans want to push the issue. The reality is that we are too close to an election for any action to have a real impact especially since the Senate is likely to reject taking up the item.
Vice Presidents – for Mr. Trump, we suspect that this will be a critical decision, particularly if he hopes to win more women and non-white voters. Leading candidates might be Tim Scott or possibly, a moderate woman.
On Balance
This is a hard election to call. While the polls have Mr. Trump ahead, our suspicion is that Mr. Biden has far superior support in getting out the vote. We are likely to update this report as the campaigns progress.
Sources
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/03/14/why…
[2] https://www.npr.org/2023/07/13/1187272781/rfk-jr-…
[3] https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4563288-rfk-jr-nicole-shanahan…
[4] https://sports.yahoo.com/aaron-rodgers-speaking-pretty…
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